Projected Contraction of External Trade Balance
Economic analysts at Coronation Asset Management have projected that Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus will narrow during the second half of 2026. This forecast is based on anticipated moderation in global crude oil prices, which currently remain at elevated levels. The prediction was detailed in the firm’s Q2 2026 Trade Statistics Report, released following data publication by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The report indicates that external trade conditions strengthened significantly throughout the second quarter of the year. This strengthening pushed the nation’s trade surplus to a record high of N12.60 trillion. The surge in the trade balance represents a 101.32 percent year-on-year increase from the N6.26 trillion recorded in the second quarter of 2025. It also marks a 66.85 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion from the N7.55 trillion surplus observed in the first quarter of 2026.
Drivers of Quarterly Trade Expansion
According to the Coronation Asset Management report, the sharp improvement in Nigeria’s external position was largely driven by a rally in global crude oil prices. This price increase followed supply disruptions in the Middle East. The report attributes the substantial rise in export earnings directly to these geopolitical factors affecting global energy markets.
Total export earnings climbed to N27.02 trillion in the second quarter of 2026. Petroleum-related products constituted 86.2 percent of this total export basket, underscoring the dominance of energy commodities in Nigeria's external trade profile. Crude oil remained the primary foreign exchange earner, generating N12.91 trillion in revenue.
The revenue from crude oil was supported by average Brent crude prices reaching $99.44 per barrel during the quarter. In addition to price increases, domestic production volumes also contributed to the higher earnings. Domestic oil production increased by 10.9 percent quarter-on-quarter, reaching 1.53 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026.
Implications for Second Half Economic Outlook
The analysts suggest that the current trajectory of high export revenues is unlikely to persist as global market conditions evolve. The expected pullback in crude oil prices from their recent peaks is cited as the primary factor for the anticipated narrowing of the trade surplus.
While the second quarter established a historical benchmark for Nigeria's trade balance, the forecast for the remainder of the year points toward a correction. The moderation in oil prices is expected to reduce the value of export earnings, thereby decreasing the gap between exports and imports.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics provided the foundational figures for the Coronation Asset Management analysis. The report highlights the volatility inherent in Nigeria's trade position due to its heavy reliance on petroleum products. With crude oil accounting for the vast majority of foreign exchange earnings, fluctuations in Brent crude prices and global supply dynamics directly impact the national trade surplus.
The record N12.60 trillion surplus in Q2 2026 stands as a statistical anomaly driven by specific temporary market conditions. The analysts' projection for the second half of 2026 reflects a return to more typical levels of trade balance as those temporary price supports diminish.
Domestic production metrics showed growth during the peak surplus period, with the 10.9 percent increase in barrels produced providing a secondary boost to earnings. However, the primary driver identified by the analysts remains the price per barrel rather than volume alone. As Brent crude prices are predicted to moderate, the financial contribution of each barrel will decrease, leading to lower total export revenues.
The 86.2 percent share of petroleum products in the export basket indicates limited diversification in Nigeria's trade portfolio. This concentration means that any shift in global oil demand or supply disruptions easing will have an immediate and proportional effect on the country's external trade statistics. The narrowing surplus predicted for H2 2026 is therefore a direct function of these external market forces rather than changes in domestic production capacity or import policies.
The National Bureau of Statistics data confirms the historical nature of the Q2 figures, while the analysts' report provides the forward-looking assessment. The divergence between the record high achieved in mid-2026 and the projected decline later in the year illustrates the sensitivity of Nigeria's trade balance to global energy pricing.
Coronation Asset Management’s Q2 2026 Trade Statistics Report serves as the primary source for these projections. The firm’s analysis links the future trajectory of the trade surplus explicitly to the expected behavior of crude oil markets in the coming months.