Demographer Projects China’s Population Could Fall to 320 Million by 2100

Projections for a Shrinking Population

Independent demographer Fuxian Yi has projected that China’s population could decline to 320 million people by the year 2100. The projection appears in a new monograph published in the independent journal Contemporary China Review. Yi, who serves as a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and deputy editor-in-chief of Contemporary China Review, does not accept official Chinese government population figures. His analysis relies on alternative demographic modeling to forecast long-term population trends. The monograph attributes China’s current demographic challenges to historical policy decisions. The journal describes the one-child policy as “a classic case of applying engineering logic to a complex social system.” According to the publication, this approach resulted in hundreds of millions of foregone births and included coercive practices such as forced abortions and sterilizations. Contemporary China Review states that the legacy of the one-child policy is responsible for China’s persistent low fertility rates and population aging. These factors form the basis for Yi’s projection of a significant population contraction over the next eight decades.

Origins in Engineering Models

The one-child policy was implemented following projections made by missile expert Song Jian. In the late 1960s and 1970s, Song Jian used an engineering control-systems model to analyze a population boom in China. Based on this analysis, Song Jian issued a projection in 1980 that the Chinese population would exceed 4.2 billion by the year 2080 if growth was not controlled. The Chinese government subsequently adopted the one-child policy in response to these projections. The application of control-systems engineering to demographic management has drawn criticism in subsequent decades. Contemporary China Review characterizes the policy’s implementation as a failure of logic when applied to social systems, noting the severe demographic consequences that followed.

Broader Economic Context

Demographic shifts occur alongside broader questions regarding economic data transparency in China. Former Premier Li Keqiang previously stated that government GDP figures were “man-made.” Li noted that he relied on alternative metrics, such as electricity consumption, to gauge real economic growth rather than official statistics. While distinct from the demographic projections, these comments highlight a pattern of skepticism toward official Chinese government data among former officials and independent analysts. Yi’s current work continues this trend of challenging official narratives, using independent academic platforms to present alternative forecasts for China’s future population size.