Asymmetric Disruptions Reshape Eurasian Aviation
Closed airspace in Russia and the Gulf has created asymmetric, persistent, and cumulative disruptions for aviation across Eurasia since 2022, according to reports. This situation contrasts with previous shocks to the industry, such as the events of Sept. 11, 2001, or the global pandemic, which were characterized by symmetric and reversible impacts on the network.
The restrictions have fundamentally altered the competitive landscape for carriers operating between Asia and Europe. Chinese airlines retained access to Russian airspace after 2022, while Western carriers lost that access. Consequently, the share of scheduled capacity between China and Europe operated by Chinese carriers rose from approximately 55 percent in the summer of 2019 to 83 percent by the summer of 2025.
For Western carriers, the loss of Russian airspace has necessitated significant route adjustments. Finnair’s flight time between Helsinki and Tokyo increased from about nine hours to 13 hours, representing a 44 percent increase in duration after losing access to Russian airspace.
Operational Costs and Rerouting Burdens
The ongoing disruptions in the Middle East have further strained aviation logistics. During the latest conflict-related disruption, airlines rerouted 1,150 flights per day to avoid the conflict area. These detours forced aircraft to fly an additional 206,000 kilometers every day.
U.S. Military Dependence on Civilian Infrastructure
The United States built its global military mobility capacity within the civilian aviation ecosystem and still largely depends on commercial airlines, civil airports, cargo hubs, maintenance organizations, fuel infrastructure, and politically accessible airspace for strategic operations.
This dependence was evident during the conflict in Afghanistan. From 2009, the United States utilized the Northern Distribution Network to move military cargo across Russia and Central Asia into Afghanistan. This operation relied on Russian geography and commercial airlift capabilities, such as Volga-Dnepr Airlines’ An-124 aircraft.
In 2009, a U.S.-Russian agreement opened Russian airspace to American military aircraft, including C-17s. This access allowed more than 1,000 U.S. supply missions to transit Russian airspace by April 2011 and facilitated the transport of more than 150,000 personnel.
Access to northern Eurasia provided alternative corridors that reduced U.S. dependence on Pakistan for strategic mobility. The current closure of these airspace routes removes a critical component of that historical logistical framework.