Fracturing Incumbency Narrative
Tunde Olusunle argues against the optimistic projection regarding the 2027 elections published by The Economist, stating that the script circulated by the All Progressives Congress (APC) is beginning to fray. With just over three months remaining until Nigerians vote in the January 2027 general elections, Olusunle contends that the party's assertion that citizens may grumble about President Bola Tinubu but will ultimately re-elect him is losing credibility.
The Economist published an article on October 1, 2026, titled "Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway." The publication’s proposition rests on three assumptions that Olusunle identifies as tired: that incumbency is invincibility, that a divided opposition equates to a defeated opposition, and that cynicism will keep voter turnout low enough for money and machinery to determine the outcome.
Olusunle counters these assertions by pointing to specific recent events in Borno State and Lagos. He notes that Tinubu returned to Lagos from Paris on September 29, 2026, where he faced booing and irreverent chants from young Nigerians upon his arrival.
Economic Indicators and Security Challenges
The writer highlights that Tinubu’s economic pitch regarding subsidy removal, naira floatation, and revenue growth has collapsed for many citizens. Concrete economic data cited includes food inflation hovering near 20%, petrol averaging N1,500 per litre, and diesel prices exceeding N2,000 per litre.
Humanitarian conditions further complicate the political landscape. The World Food Programme reports that malnutrition is at its worst in ten years. Dr. Nura Tukur of Save the Children reported a spike in severely malnourished babies and anaemic mothers.
Security issues in Borno State remain a critical factor. The state continues to face insurgency involving extortion, abductions for ransom, and looted grain stores. A 27-year-old grain trader in Maiduguri told Olusunle that he takes grain to Chad because locals cannot afford it.
Political Shifts in Key States
Olusunle points to shifting political dynamics in Borno State as evidence against the incumbent's perceived invincibility. In 2023, Tinubu reportedly polled 54% in the state. However, recent polling by SBM Intelligence places him behind both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in that same region.
This reversal is significant given Borno's historical voting patterns. The collapse of the incumbent's standing in this stronghold suggests that the opposition may have viable pathways to reverse the situation by January 2027, particularly if economic grievances continue to drive voter sentiment.
Internal Opposition Dynamics
Beyond polling numbers, there are allegations regarding the financial integrity of the opposition's consolidation. Galadima has alleged that opposition politicians refused money intended to keep them out of the 2027 race, suggesting a level of independence and resolve among some rivals that complicates the APC's strategic calculations.
Calls for Independent Assessment
The depth of public discontent was further highlighted by Senator Babafemi Ojudu, who wrote an open Independence Day letter stating that hardship has become "the defining experience of too many Nigerians." He urged the President to widen the circle and commission independent polls, acknowledging the disconnect between official narratives and the lived reality of citizens.