A Historic Rarity: Three Teams Face Long Odds After Opening Series Deficits
As of October 6, 2026, the landscape of the MLB playoffs has shifted dramatically following Monday’s results. The Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, and New York Yankees all find themselves in a precarious position, having lost their first two games in their respective best-of-five Division Series. This scenario places them among an exclusive and historically difficult group of teams to overcome.
According to CBS Sports, only 10 teams in MLB history have successfully come back from a 2-0 deficit in a five-game series. The most recent team to achieve this feat was the 2017 Yankees, who defeated the Cleveland Indians. Of the 92 MLB teams that have faced a 0-2 deficit in a best-of-five series, only ten have completed the comeback, highlighting the statistical improbability of the task facing these three clubs.
The Padres’ Homecoming and Pitching Mismatch
The San Diego Padres face the Milwaukee Brewers with their season on the brink. CBS Sports notes that the Padres utilized Michael King and their bullpen arms in Games 1 and 2 but lost both contests. The series now shifts to Petco Park for Game 3, where Nick Pivetta is expected to pitch after a day off. Dose.ca emphasizes that Pivetta’s performance will be critical in this home game.
The Brewers have benefited from strong starting pitching early on. CBS Sports reports that Milwaukee starters Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson pitched Games 1 and 2, with a noted drop-off in starting pitching depth thereafter. Dose.ca adds that the Brewers can close out the series against the Padres in San Diego as early as Tuesday.
Guardians Struggle Against White Sox Road Dominance
The Cleveland Guardians, an 85-win team, face a formidable Chicago White Sox squad that has gone 4-0 in road playoff games. CBS Sports highlights that the White Sox are an 84-win team and won four of six head-to-head games against the Guardians during the regular season in Chicago.
Parker Messick is scheduled to start Game 4 for Cleveland after starting and losing Game 1. Dose.ca points out that the Guardians must win their next two games on the road against the White Sox in Chicago. This presents a significant challenge, as the White Sox have a chance to win a playoff series at home for the first time since winning the World Series in 1906 against the Chicago Cubs. Since 1906, the White Sox have won only five playoff series, none of which were clinched at home.
Yankees’ Pitching Depth Tested Against Rays
The New York Yankees, who had the best record and run differential among the three teams down 2-0, face the Tampa Bay Rays. CBS Sports notes that the Yankees defeated the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series by a combined score of 18-2. However, Dose.ca describes the Yankees' offense as anemic and their defense as collapsed during their first two games against the Rays.
Max Fried is scheduled to start Game 3 for the Yankees, with Carlos Rodón and a combination of Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler available for Game 5. Dose.ca confirms that Fried and Rodón are tasked with pitching to keep the series alive. This matchup is particularly interesting given the Rays' offensive tendencies; CBS Sports reports that the Rays have a .751 OPS against right-handed pitching compared to a .678 OPS against left-handed pitching, making the availability of lefties like Fried and Rodón crucial.
Additionally, home-field advantage could play a role. CBS Sports notes that the Yankees had a .755 OPS at home versus a .688 OPS on the road during the regular season. If the series returns to New York for Games 4 and 5, the Yankees may rely on their home offensive numbers to mount a comeback.