Advice for a Nation on the Fault Line
Kishore Mahbubani, the founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, urged the Philippines to maintain friendly ties with both the United States and China during a lecture at Ateneo de Manila University.
Mahbubani described the rivalry between the two powers as the defining contest of the era. He warned that the Philippines, situated on the conflict's fault line, must be "very, very careful." The danger, he said, touches every Association of Southeast Asian Nations country but may be especially difficult for the Philippines.
The lecture was held on the initiative of Robert Kwan Laurel’s Endowment Fund. Mahbubani served as Singapore’s ambassador to the United Nations and permanent secretary of that country’s foreign affairs ministry before becoming a prolific author on geopolitics.
Structural Forces Over Personalities
Mahbubani argued that geopolitical competition is driven by structural forces rather than personalities. He cited Harvard’s Graham Allison and his book "Destined for War" to support the view that great-power rivalry follows historical patterns regardless of individual leaders.
According to Mahbubani, Washington perceives this moment as a unique challenge because another power is attempting to challenge its dominance for the first time in approximately 130 years. He emphasized that this competitive stance is bipartisan, persisting across different US administrations rather than being tied to any single president.
Tracing the evolution of this rivalry, Mahbubani pointed to former President Barack Obama’s "pivot to Asia" as an early indicator of shifting strategic priorities. He noted how former President Donald Trump escalated tensions through a trade war in 2018, and how current policies under President Joe Biden have further entrenched the divide.
Specific examples of this deepening engagement include the formation of the AUKUS security pact and the expansion of US military access to additional sites within the Philippines. These moves reflect a broader strategy to contain Chinese influence in the region.
The Fragility of Diplomatic Truces
While diplomatic efforts continue, Mahbubani highlighted the precarious nature of recent agreements between the two superpowers. He noted that Brookings Institution analysts have described the outcomes of recent US-China summits as modest, while the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has characterized the resulting truce as fragile.
Further complicating the landscape, Reuters reported that this temporary truce was extended by only two months, suggesting a lack of long-term stability in relations. Mahbubani warned that "the calm never lasts" and predicted that something surprising will occur in the geopolitical landscape, urging nations to prepare for sudden shifts.
Risks for Small States
Mahbubani cautioned that international law offers little protection to small states caught in the crossfire of great-power competition. He cited Ukraine as a stark example of the consequences faced by countries that misread the realities of this power dynamic.
He argued that relying on legal frameworks rather than strategic positioning leaves vulnerable nations exposed to the whims of larger powers. The lecture served as a reminder for Manila to navigate these waters with extreme caution, balancing its alliances while avoiding direct confrontation.
Economic Leverage and Retaliation
Discussing the economic dimensions of the rivalry, Mahbubani credited China’s ability to retaliate against US tariffs through controls on rare earth minerals. He referenced Trump’s April 2025 tariffs as a catalyst for this specific form of counter-measure.
However, reports indicate that Mahbubani overstated the extent of China's unilateral action in this regard, as Canada also imposed counter-tariffs during the same period. Despite this nuance, his point remained focused on the tangible tools available to China in a prolonged economic conflict.
A Call for Strategic Patience
The overarching message from Mahbubani’s address was one of strategic patience and careful navigation. By maintaining friendly ties with both Washington and Beijing, the Philippines can avoid being forced into a binary choice that could jeopardize its sovereignty and economic interests.
As the defining contest of the era continues to unfold, Mahbubani’s warnings underscore the need for ASEAN nations to remain vigilant. The structural forces driving US-China competition are unlikely to dissipate soon, requiring small states to adopt policies that prioritize their own stability over alignment with either superpower.