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First Postseason Meeting Sets Stage in Milwaukee
The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers are scheduled to face each other in National League Division Series (NLDS) Game 1 on Saturday, October 3, 2026. The series marks the first postseason meeting between the two franchises. The opener will be played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, with first pitch scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
During the regular season, San Diego won four of its six meetings against Milwaukee, but the stakes are significantly higher now. The Brewers finished the regular season with a franchise-record 103-59 record, while the Padres finished 94-68. Both teams have navigated their paths to this point through dominant performances in earlier rounds.
Pitching Matchup and Model Projections
Milwaukee will start pitcher Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1. He posted a 16-5 record with an MLB-best 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts during the regular season. San Diego will start veteran left-hander Robbie Ray, who has struggled since being acquired at the trade deadline.
Dimers projections give the Brewers a 61.4% chance of winning the opener, while giving the Padres a model edge of +3.6 percentage points to win outright. The Padres’ bullpen held the second-lowest ERA in MLB this season, which could be crucial if Ray’s outing is short.
Jackson Chourio’s Historic Postseason
Jackson Chourio is a 22-year-old left fielder for the Brewers who has recorded three 20-20 seasons before turning 23, making him the first player in MLB history to achieve this feat. He holds a .341 batting average and 1.044 OPS across 12 career postseason games, including four home runs and 11 RBI.
Chourio is tied for the most playoff home runs in Brewers franchise history, having hit a three-run shot in the 2024 NLDS and a leadoff homer in the 2025 NLCS. In September of the regular season, Chourio hit .337/.389/.531 with five home runs, 18 RBI, and nine stolen bases. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Chourio logged a .767 slugging percentage against fastballs across the last two months of the regular season.
Padres’ Offensive Depth
The Padres swept the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round, winning 8-0 in Game 1 and 4-1 in Game 2. Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Gavin Sheets contributed to the victory. The Brewers finished the regular season with a franchise-record 103-59 record, while the Padres finished 94-68.
The Padres’ bullpen held the second-lowest ERA in MLB this season. This depth could be tested against Chourio’s historic production. The Brewers’ offense has been fueled by Chourio’s ability to hit for power and average, as evidenced by his three 20-20 seasons before turning 23.
Historical Context and Series Outlook
This series marks the first postseason meeting between the Padres and Brewers. During the regular season, San Diego won four of its six meetings against Milwaukee. The Brewers finished the regular season with a franchise-record 103-59 record, while the Padres finished 94-68.
The Padres swept the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round, winning 8-0 in Game 1 and 4-1 in Game 2. Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Gavin Sheets contributed to the victory. The Brewers’ offense has been fueled by Chourio’s ability to hit for power and average, as evidenced by his three 20-20 seasons before turning 23.
The Padres’ bullpen held the second-lowest ERA in MLB this season. This depth could be tested against Chourio’s historic production. The Brewers’ offense has been fueled by Chourio’s ability to hit for power and average, as evidenced by his three 20-20 seasons before turning 23.
