De Facto Peace Amid Unsettled Security Dynamics
The South Caucasus region has entered a phase characterized by de facto peace, though analysts note that settled security remains an unachieved objective. This shift in the strategic landscape follows Azerbaijan's restoration of control over Karabakh in 2023, which marked the end of one phase in the region's long conflict cycle.
According to a recent assessment by the Valdai Club, the Armenia-Azerbaijan breakthrough and subsequent new connectivity plans present a historic opportunity for the area. However, the regional order remains fragile due to several persistent factors. These include incomplete legal normalization, unresolved border and humanitarian questions, rivalries over transport corridors, Georgia's enduring conflicts, and potential spillover from surrounding wars.
The strategic map of the South Caucasus has changed fundamentally. The events of 2023 altered the balance of power, yet the legal frameworks required to solidify peace have not been fully established. The presence of unresolved humanitarian issues continues to complicate diplomatic efforts, while disputes over transport infrastructure create new points of tension between neighboring states.
Islamabad’s Strategic Stake in Regional Stability
Pakistan has developed a genuine stake in the outcome of these developments due to its multifaceted engagement in the region. Islamabad maintains a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan, which forms a cornerstone of its foreign policy interests in the South Caucasus. Simultaneously, Pakistan has established newly formed relations with Armenia, broadening its diplomatic footprint in the area.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s engagement with the Eurasian Economic Union is growing, indicating an expanding economic and political interest in the broader post-Soviet space. These relationships provide Islamabad with multiple avenues to influence and monitor regional developments.
Economic Connectivity and Sovereignty
Pakistan’s interests in the South Caucasus are focused on three primary objectives: sovereignty-based connectivity, inclusive regionalism, and peace that yields shared economic benefits. The push for sovereignty-based connectivity suggests a preference for infrastructure projects that respect national borders and legal jurisdictions.
Inclusive regionalism is cited as a desired outcome, implying a diplomatic approach that seeks to integrate various actors in the region rather than isolating any single party. The goal of peace producing shared economic benefits aligns with Pakistan’s broader economic interests, suggesting that stability is viewed through the lens of trade and resource access.
Legal Normalization and Border Disputes
The path to settled security is obstructed by incomplete legal normalization. While de facto peace exists on the ground, the absence of comprehensive legal agreements leaves the status of territories and borders ambiguous. This ambiguity fuels ongoing rivalries over transport corridors, which are critical for regional trade routes.
Unresolved border issues remain a significant hurdle. The lack of clearly defined and legally recognized boundaries contributes to instability, as does the handling of humanitarian questions left by previous conflicts. These unresolved matters prevent the full normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, despite the breakthroughs noted in recent years.
Georgia’s Conflicts and Regional Spillover Risks
Beyond the Armenia-Azerbaijan dynamic, Georgia’s enduring conflicts contribute to the fragility of the regional order. The instability within Georgia adds another layer of complexity to security assessments, as it affects the broader South Caucasus landscape.
Additionally, the potential for spillover from surrounding wars poses a risk to the region. Analysts warn that conflicts in neighboring areas could destabilize the fragile peace currently observed in the South Caucasus. This external threat vector requires continuous monitoring by regional actors and international partners alike.
Diplomatic Implications for Pakistan
Pakistan’s position is defined by its ability to engage with multiple parties, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the Eurasian Economic Union. This multi-vector approach allows Islamabad to advocate for its interests in connectivity and economic cooperation.
The restoration of control over Karabakh by Azerbaijan in 2023 has shifted the strategic map, creating new realities that Pakistan must navigate. The country’s interest in sovereignty-based connectivity reflects a desire to ensure that any new infrastructure projects align with international law and respect national sovereignty.
As the region moves forward, the interplay between de facto peace and legal normalization will determine the long-term stability of the South Caucasus. Pakistan’s growing engagement suggests it views this period as critical for establishing economic ties and securing its strategic interests in a changing geopolitical environment.