War Game Simulation Results
A war game simulation conducted in Seoul suggested that South Korea and European nations may not be effective allies or responders in a crisis involving Taiwan. The simulation was organized by the European Values Center for Security Policy think tank.
The exercise examined how a crisis affecting both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions could impact responses to a Chinese move on Taiwan.
South Korea's Potential Role
A report from the war game suggested that China would likely aim to prevent South Korea from joining a U.S.-led alliance during an early phase of escalation around Taiwan. The simulation indicated this possibility as part of its assessment of regional dynamics.
European Response Capabilities
The war game highlighted the European Union's historical difficulty in responding decisively without U.S. leadership. Sources cited specific instances to illustrate these challenges, including the Balkans crisis of the 1990s and the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
A report from the simulation suggested that the EU, South Korea, and Japan should enhance their existing cyber-cooperation protocols and joint evacuation plans for their nationals in Taiwan. These recommendations were part of the broader findings regarding regional preparedness.
U.S. Airpower Readiness Concerns
A U.S. Government Accountability Office report indicated that the F-35 fighter jet program's full mission capable rate has fallen to 25%. This finding raised concerns about U.S. airpower readiness for a potential conflict over Taiwan, according to the document.
Taiwan Diplomatic Statements
Taiwan's top diplomat in the United States stated that the island requires American weapons for self-defense against China's growing threat. The same official also stated that U.S. policy toward Taiwan has not changed.
People's Liberation Army Expansion
A U.S. military report to Congress indicated that the People's Liberation Army is undergoing significant expansion. The document further noted that the Chinese military force is training for missions including the unification of Taiwan. Additionally, the report stated that the People's Liberation Army has a goal of achieving military readiness by 2027.
Taiwan Civilian Preparedness
Taiwan has initiated civilian drone training programs, drawing lessons from the Ukraine war. These initiatives are part of broader efforts to improve public preparedness amid rising tensions with China.