Shifting Perceptions of Leadership
Indonesia has historically been considered the de facto leader of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) based on long-standing assumptions. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in Indonesia's role as a regional leader, creating an opening for other member states to challenge this status.
Vietnam is currently projecting itself as an effective leader through its proactive governance during the pandemic and its critical engagements with China. This shift has led to speculation that Vietnam may take over the mantle of ASEAN’s de facto leader.
Despite these developments, Indonesia continues to attempt to control China’s assertive maneuvers in the South China Sea. The country filed a recent arbitration with the United Nations to demonstrate its capability to lead ASEAN states and serve as a model for the region.
The Architecture of ASEAN Authority
The nature of leadership within ASEAN is rooted in its founding structure. The organization was established in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand without defining technicalities for de jure leadership.
Indonesia’s historical prominence is supported by its demographic and geographic scale. It is the largest ASEAN state by both geographic size and population, as well as the world’s largest archipelagic state. Globally, it ranks as the fifth-largest country and the third-largest democracy, home to the largest Muslim population.
Institutional ties further anchor Indonesia’s traditional role. The ASEAN Secretariat was established in Jakarta in 1976, and the ASEAN headquarters was built there in 1981. Indonesia also hosted the first ASEAN summit, known as the Bali Accord I, in 1976. This event resulted in the signing of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), which regulates membership and cooperation for Southeast Asian and extra-regional states.
Great powers have acceded to the TAC after its creation: China in 2003, the United States in 2009, and Russia in 2012. Later, the Bali Concord II was held in Indonesia in 2003, establishing the ASEAN Security Community, ASEAN Economic Community, and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community, as well as the ASEAN Plus Three (APT).
Expansion and Strategic Frameworks
ASEAN adopted several key frameworks to define its regional stance. The organization adopted the Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Equality (ZOPFAN) in 1971, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in 1976, and the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ) in 1995.
The bloc expanded significantly over subsequent decades. Brunei acceded in 1986, followed by Vietnam in 1995. Laos and Myanmar joined in 1997, and Cambodia became a member in 1999. This expansion has complicated the dynamics of leadership, as the original assumptions favoring Indonesia’s dominance are tested by the growing influence of newer members like Vietnam.