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Carney Acknowledges Invasion Scenarios as Risk Management
Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed that the Canadian government is preparing for a scenario involving a United States invasion, describing the likelihood of such an event as "highly improbable." Carney told the New York Times that he felt a responsibility to consider all possibilities as the relationship between the two nations is redefined under President Donald Trump’s presidency.
"That's just risk management," Carney stated regarding the preparations. The Prime Minister noted that while the risk is low, the current geopolitical climate necessitates comprehensive planning.
The decision to war-game an American attack stems from a combination of factors, including US global tariffs and President Trump’s repeated comments suggesting he desires to make Canada the 51st state. In 2025, President Trump stated it was "highly unlikely" the US would use force against Canada, indicating a preference for exerting economic pressure to achieve political aims.
The White House responded to reports of these preparations by telling the BBC that President Trump has done more than anyone to protect the people of Canada.
Public Anxiety and Military Perspectives
Despite official assessments of low probability, the prospect of conflict appears to be affecting public sentiment. A Leger poll conducted in January suggested that over 30% of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
Military experts interviewed by the BBC described an invasion as a "long shot," pointing to the extensive defense collaboration between the two countries through NATO and NORAD. Lt-Gen Christopher Coates, a former Royal Canadian Air Force officer, stated that he never considered the possibility of a military attack from US territory during his career.
Coates noted that while an armed assault is unlikely, any conflict would more likely begin with cyberwarfare rather than traditional military engagement. He emphasized the deep integration of defense protocols between the two nations.
Historical Context of Border Defense
The current preparations have drawn comparisons to historical approaches to border security. Tim Foran, a researcher at the Canadian War Museum, stated that fear of the United States is foundational to Canada’s political project and national identity.
Andrew Burtch, another researcher at the Canadian War Museum, noted that while war was unlikely in the 20th century, Canadians previously drafted plans informed by generals posing as tourists to gather intelligence on border infrastructure. These historical measures highlight a long-standing vigilance regarding US-Canada relations, even during periods of peace.
