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Export Growth Meets Rising Global Barriers
Zhao Fuquan, vice chairman of the Global Automotive Elite Organization and dean of the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy at Tsinghua University, stated that solving only the market problem in overseas expansion is "entry-level." He made these remarks at the 2026 Global Chinese Automotive Elite Annual Meeting and the "China Embracing the World" Automotive Industry International Development Forum.
The context for this warning is a rapid acceleration in vehicle shipments abroad. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), reported that Chinese auto exports stood at 995,000 in 2020 and rose to 7.09 million last year. CAAM data shows domestic auto sales fell about 22% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, while exports jumped roughly 66%.
Projections for the current year indicate continued growth. China's full-year auto exports could top 11 million in 2026, potentially challenging 12 million. Zhao Fuquan noted that annual global passenger car sales sit around 75 million, with China accounting for about 20 million and the U.S. representing 15 million.
The addressable market for Chinese automakers, excluding China and the U.S., is roughly 40 million units, yet they are flooding in with over 10 million units a year. This volume has triggered regulatory responses in key markets.
European Tariffs and Regulatory Hurdles
Data on exports to Europe shows China exported about 100,000 pure EVs to the EU in 2024, roughly 300,000 in 2025, and 490,000 in the first eight months of this year.
The cost of entering this market is increasing. Xu Haidong revealed that the top-tier anti-subsidy rate for EU tariffs hits 45%, and stacked on the 10% base tariff, some firms face a total burden exceeding 50%.
Zhao Fuquan warned that barriers are tightening in a specific order: tariffs, quotas, and localization requirements. He stated that quality issues with some Chinese cars have already damaged reputation abroad and that the window for cooperation is shorter than imagined.
Intense Competition in Southeast Asia
While Europe imposes financial barriers, other regions face different challenges. Zhao Fuquan revealed that a price war has ignited in Southeast Asia, turning the region into a deeply cutthroat market.
In Zhao's view, the key to overseas success lies in building a globalized company for the new automotive era. The addressable market outside of China and the U.S. remains large at roughly 40 million units annually, but capturing it requires navigating complex trade policies and local competition.
