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Ethiopia's Predicted Conflict Has Begun

Ethiopia's Foretold War Arrives [African Arguments] No one can claim that a return to war in Tigray and northern Ethiopia is a surprise, but it makes it no less horrifying. In just a handful of days, and after months of spiralling tensions and sporadic fighting, the 'grey conflict' the federal gover

By Priya SharmaPublished 3 Min Read
Ethiopia's Predicted Conflict Has Begun
Ethiopia's Predicted Conflict Has Begun
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{ "articleTitle": "Ethiopia's Predicted Conflict Has Begun", "articleDescription": "A diverse coalition of ethnic-based opposition movements, including the TPLF and Fano, has formed an alliance to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as fighting escalates in northern Ethiopia.", "articleBody": "

Alliance Formed to Oust Federal Government

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A diverse coalition of ethnic-based opposition movements in Ethiopia announced a new alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. The group, titled the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, was unveiled by Fano commander Zemane Kassie on Tigrai TV.

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The alliance includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). Three smaller ethno-nationalist movements from the Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions also joined the coalition.

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The formation of this alliance marks a significant shift in the region's political landscape, emerging from a rapprochement between the TPLF and Eritrea known as 'Tsimdo.' The core of the new alliance appears to be the TPLF and Fano forces, while the OLA's commitment to the coalition has been described as more circumspect.

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Escalation Into Full-Blown War

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The announcement comes as tensions in northern Ethiopia have escalated rapidly. According to TPLF vice president Ammanuel Assefa, the 'grey conflict' previously pursued by the federal government against Tigray has now turned into a \"full-blown war.\" This escalation occurred over just a handful of days following months of spiralling tensions and sporadic fighting.

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Fighting has renewed on a large scale in the Amhara and Afar regions. Reports indicate that over two dozen federal airstrikes have been conducted, while TPLF forces have seized control of three key airports in Tigray.

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Tigrayan and Fano forces are reportedly fighting side by side for the first time along the borders of Tigray-Afar and Tigray-Amhara. Combat has also been reported along the Kobo-Tumuga road in North Wollo. Additionally, Tigrayan units have seized several towns in Afar, including Abala and Erebti, potentially pushing toward the Djibouti Corridor.

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Regional Instability and Historical Context

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The conflict has disrupted transportation across the region. Armed movements toward Lalibela have led Ethiopian Airlines to cancel flights to Lalibela, Mekelle, Aksum, and Shire.

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Fresh fighting has also emerged along the Tekeze River near the Eritrean border. This area has seen government drone strikes and advances by Eritrean troops into Western Tigray. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is described as seeking to place the burden of war on Ethiopia to spare his depleted army.

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The return to large-scale conflict raises concerns given the recent history of violence in the region