Federal Reserve signals tightening policy
On June 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee under new Chairman Kevin Warsh kept benchmark interest rates within a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The committee voted unanimously on this decision.
Stephen Miran joined the majority despite previously voting for cuts in all prior meetings. New projections indicated nine of the 19 Fed members believe an interest rate hike is necessary before the end of year, with six targeting increases of more than 25 basis points.
Prior to this meeting, no committee member had anticipated a tightening policy; currently, only one member sees room for rate cuts. The Fed attributes its restrictive stance to robust economic conditions, strong productivity growth, and supply-driven inflation in the energy sector.
Gold prices decline following Federal Reserve decision
Falling gold prices followed the June 18 meeting. Gold came under pressure immediately after the meeting, falling to $4,290.52 per ounce with daily losses of just under one percent.
Interim agreement signed between U.S. and Iran
On June 19, 2026, an interim agreement on Iran was reported as being signed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The signing of the Iran deal is reported to have eased oil prices and inflation concerns.
This development allowed gold to partially recoup losses after the Fed meeting following the initial decline caused by restrictive signals from the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee.
Societe Generale adjusts portfolio allocation
Market strategists at Société Générale updated their Multi-Asset Portfolio for the third quarter with a 10% allocation to gold, up from 7% in the second quarter. SocGen increased its broader commodity exposure to 10% from 8% heading into the third quarter.
Societe Generale analysts provide market outlook
Société Générale analysts stated they are returning to full weighting in gold and expect volatility may decline if retail participation eases off. The bank noted that central banks are likely to remain active buyers as part of ongoing de-dollarisation efforts and institutional diversification away from equities and bonds.