Interim Agreement Signed
An interim Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed on June 17, 2026, by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The MoU aims to end the war between both countries and Israel.
The agreement calls for an "immediate and permanent" termination of all military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
Strait of Hormuz Status
Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which had been largely closed since February 2026 due to hostilities. The United States agreed to lift its naval blockade.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, stated on June 24 that the Strait of Hormuz will "never return to its pre-war conditions" and will be administered by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Reports indicate Iran is taking steps to establish a joint mechanism with Oman to exercise long-term authority over the Strait.
Nuclear Inspectors
The MoU includes provisions for UN nuclear inspectors to re-enter the country as part of the agreement. US Vice-President JD Vance stated on June 22 that UN inspectors could return as soon as that week.
Esmail Baqaei, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, stated on June 24 that negotiations on the nuclear program are conditional upon the implementation of other MoU clauses, including economic relief and a halt to hostilities in Lebanon. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's Telegram channel reiterated objectives regarding the "resolution of nuclear issues," likely referring to maintaining the Iranian nuclear program.
Economic Terms
The MoU includes sanctions waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, access to frozen Iranian assets, and plans for a reconstruction and development fund exceeding $300 billion. Iran's economic growth was 0.2 percent (including oil revenues) in the Iranian year 1404 (March 2025–March 2026), and contracted by 0.3 percent excluding oil.
Deconfliction Mechanism
A "deconfliction" mechanism has been established involving Washington, Tehran, and Beirut to facilitate a ceasefire in Lebanon. This mechanism excludes Israel.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) suggest this mechanism appears to replace a previous monitoring mechanism and could constrain Israeli action against Hezbollah, benefiting Iran and Hezbollah.
Lebanon Ceasefire
Abs Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, stated that a Lebanon ceasefire is one of Iran's key demands and the "first test" of the MoU. Conversely, Israeli leaders have stated forces will remain in a "security zone" in southern Lebanon until the threat from Hezbollah is eliminated.
Internal Disagreements
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) reported on June 12 that persistent internal disagreements remain among Iranian regime leaders over concessions in negotiations with the United States. IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle reportedly continue to seek an agreement meeting Iranian maximalist demands, while other Iranian officials appear to have disputed a leaked draft memorandum.
Political Transition
Iran is currently in a transition period from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to his son, Mojtaba. Various power centers are reportedly jockeying for influence during this time.
Economic and Social Impact
The war caused significant destruction, with authorities estimating two million people out of work and inflation reaching 77% in May 2026. Many Iranians remain profoundly dissatisfied with the political and economic status quo, with sporadic protests periodically flaring up across the country.
Human Rights Concerns
The regime is considered "profoundly vulnerable domestically," with popular protests expected to return. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk deplored Iranian authorities' crackdown on dissent, noting that at least nine people have been executed in connection with domestic protests since the US-Israeli strikes.
Opposition Views
Speakers at the "Free Iran 2026" conference in Paris emphasized on June 24 that Iran's future will be determined by the Iranian people themselves, not by foreign military intervention or diplomatic bargaining. Speakers argued that democratic transformation must come from within, led by protesters, Resistance Units, and the organized opposition.