Tactical Adaptation to Economic Volatility
Nigerian businesses have developed mechanisms to withstand immediate financial pressures, according to research published by the Lagos Business School. The institutions note that firms have established tactical resilience specifically against fluctuating exchange rates, inflation, and uncertainties in policymaking.
This adaptation occurs within a broader economic landscape where optimism remains high among corporate leaders. A survey of Nigerian executives found that 74 percent believe the current business climate is positive. This sentiment is supported by macroeconomic forecasts predicting that the country's gross domestic product will grow by over 4.4 percent.
Despite this general optimism, significant external threats persist. Data from the Nigeria Executive Outlook 2025, a joint publication by Boston Consulting Group and Lagos Business School, reveals that nearly 45 percent of Nigerian executives identify foreign exchange and macroeconomic volatility as the most significant external threats to their organizations.
The Polycrisis Framework
The operating environment for these firms is defined by what the Centre for Creative Leadership terms a "polycrisis." This concept describes the simultaneous confluence of climate disruption, geopolitical instability, macroeconomic volatility, and technological disruption. The researchers argue this is not an abstract theory but the daily reality for emerging markets like Nigeria.
This global context heavily influences local business operations. Worldwide data indicates that 72 percent of leaders report that geopolitics has disrupted their businesses. However, preparedness remains low; only 26 percent of these global leaders engage in scenario planning to mitigate such risks.
Technology Integration and Capability Gaps
Nigerian firms are actively attempting to integrate advanced technologies into their operations, though progress varies significantly. Research indicates that 83 percent of Nigerian firms expect to integrate Generative AI within the next two years.
However, implementation lags behind ambition. The same data shows that 63 percent of these firms remain in the early stages of exploration and piloting. Leadership capability and talent shortages have emerged as the principal constraints preventing faster adoption.
This gap between tool adoption and process transformation is a global challenge with specific local implications. A report by McKinsey & Company, titled "The State of Organisations 2026," found that while 88 percent of organizations globally have embraced the use of AI, 81 percent have not felt any benefit at the bottom line. The firm attributes this lack of financial return to the digitization of tools without corresponding transformation of business processes.
Leadership Confidence Declining
The ability of corporate leaders to manage technological change is facing scrutiny. Data from the 2026 Global Leadership Study, published by Harvard Business Impact, shows a notable decline in confidence among executives.
Currently, 44 percent of leaders feel confident in their ability to lead technological transformation. This figure represents a significant drop from four years ago, when 64 percent of leaders expressed similar confidence. The researchers at Lagos Business School, including Professor Franklin Nnaemeka Ngwu and Chinasa Onwe, suggest that these gaps in technology, talent, and leadership contribute to strategic vulnerability for Nigerian firms in the current polycrisis age.
Strategic Vulnerability in a Polycrisis Age
The convergence of tactical resilience and strategic gaps defines the current state of Nigerian commerce. According to the Boston Herald, Nigerian firms exhibit tactical resilience but face strategic vulnerability in the polycrisis age. This assessment highlights that while companies can navigate immediate financial shocks, they struggle with long-term structural challenges.
Professor Franklin Nnaemeka Ngwu and Chinasa Onwe, who are with the Department of Strategy & Entrepreneurship at Lagos Business School, provide the academic framework for understanding these dynamics. Their work underscores that the inability to translate tactical survival into strategic growth leaves firms exposed to deeper systemic risks.
The principal constraints identified include significant gaps in technology adoption, talent availability, and leadership capability. These deficiencies prevent Nigerian businesses from fully capitalizing on opportunities presented by technological disruption, even as they manage the immediate pressures of macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical instability.