Democratic Gains in a Red State
LaKesha Womack faced towering odds as an underfunded Democrat making her first run for public office in a North Carolina district that Donald Trump carried by 15 points two years ago. Despite raising less than $60,000 compared to Republican Rep. Tim Moore’s $2.1 million, Womack won with a 2-point victory.
Womack cited long lines at polling places extending into Election Day as evidence that "People were ready to exercise their voice." Early voting surged in mid-October, contributing to a broader Democratic performance across the state.
The GOP in North Carolina, a state that Donald Trump carried three times, was among the hardest hit by the Democratic surge. Democrats flipped five House seats in the state, including victories by Womack, lawyer Paul Barringer, High Point Mayor Cyril Jefferson, and Army veteran Richard Ojeda, who defeated Rep. Richard Hudson, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Farmer Jamie Ager flipped an open seat in the state’s mountain west, while Rep. Don Davis held on to his eastern North Carolina district, which Republicans had redrawn in their favor.
National Context and Structural Disadvantages
The surge in North Carolina mirrored a national trend where House Democrats netted 42 seats during the midterm elections. This gain occurred while Republicans experienced a drubbing saddled by an unpopular president and broad dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Democrats’ success in North Carolina was striking given structural disadvantages since Republicans flipped the state legislature in 2010; no House GOP incumbent had lost a general election in the Tar Heel State until last week. This year’s congressional map, the state’s sixth in seven election cycles, was engineered by the Republican-led legislature to help the party capture 11 of the state’s 14 House seats.
The Democratic rout was powered by victories in states with new GOP-favored maps, including Texas, Ohio, and Florida. However, local factors also played a role; Democratic candidates were lifted by former Gov. Roy Cooper, whose 20-point Senate win provided powerful coattails for the ticket.
Uncalled Races and Narrow Margins
As of Monday afternoon, former journalist Chuck Hubbard led 11-term Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx by 99 votes in the 5th District, though The Associated Press had yet to call the race. GOP incumbent Pat Harrigan held a 1-point edge over Democratic physician associate Ashley Bell in the neighboring 10th District.
Republican Rep. Greg Murphy clung to a 233-vote edge over Democratic former state Rep. Raymond Smith, and GOP Rep. David Rouzer led Democratic social worker Kimberly Hardy by less than a point in uncalled eastern North Carolina contests.
A Watershed Moment
David Wilson Brown, who leads the Democratic Party in Gaston County near Charlotte and lost two prior bids for the House including to Foxx in 2020, called the results a "watershed moment" that "Nobody could have predicted." The scale of the shift defied expectations set by years of gerrymandering and Republican dominance in state politics.