Mahbubani Outlines Geopolitical Risks in Address
Kishore Mahbubani, a retired Singaporean diplomat and scholar, delivered a speech at Ateneo early last month regarding the relationship between the Philippines and China. The event was organized by businessman Robert Kwan Laurel.
Mahbubani, 78, described the current geopolitical climate as "one of the most dangerous times" in history. He characterized the era as a period of great power transition, identifying the contest between the United States and China as the "biggest contest of our time." During the address, he noted that international law would not assist countries in navigating this specific conflict.
Mahbubani stated that the dynamic currently involves China challenging US power. He added that cultural dimensions, including a "fear of the yellow peril," contribute an emotional layer to the contest between the two nations.
Historical Parallels and Regional Neutrality
In his analysis of historical precedents, Mahbubani drew parallels between the 2020s and the 1890s. He cited US expansionism under President Theodore Roosevelt as a model for how established powers react to emerging challengers. Specifically, he noted that during that period, the US acquired Puerto Rico and Guam, intervened in Panama, and took control of the Philippines.
Mahbubani advised observers to study the situation in Ukraine carefully. He stated that the conflict demonstrates "what happens when you don’t understand great power transitions." He warned that countries failing to recognize shifts in power risk becoming a "Ukraine" or serving as a "battering ram for somebody else’s interests." This warning underscores his view that nations must accurately perceive the shifting balance of global influence to avoid being used as pawns in larger conflicts.
Regarding regional responses, Mahbubani asserted that ASEAN countries have collectively decided to remain neutral in the US-China contest. He also argued that Western countries apply international law selectively, specifically regarding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). He stated that power ultimately decides the outcomes of conflicts and agreements.
Current Diplomatic Status
Mahbubani noted that recent diplomatic visits have temporarily stabilized relations between the two superpowers. He cited President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing and President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, DC, as factors that have calmed relations. However, he warned that "the calm never lasts" in geopolitics.
Mahbubani described the topic of engaging China as "extremely difficult." He explained that he was torn between being diplomatic and being "honest with all of you (the audience)" during his presentation at Ateneo. His remarks highlighted the complexity of navigating a period where traditional legal frameworks are viewed by some powers as insufficient tools for managing great power competition.