Macro Shockwaves Drive Treasury Yields to Multi-Year Highs
The global financial landscape shifted dramatically on September 24, 2026, as US Treasury yields surged past the 5% threshold across the board. This sharp increase was driven by pre-holiday caution and intensified overnight macro pressure following the release of the US September flash composite PMI, which came in at 58.4—a five-year high. The data revealed that new orders were expanding at the fastest pace since April 2022, reigniting expectations for tighter monetary policy.
The strong economic indicators caused US Treasuries to be sold off sharply, pushing yields to levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 5-year US Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, while the 10-year yield rose above 5.1%, marking a nearly 19-year high. Meanwhile, the 30-year US Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2004.
Market participants also reacted to the strengthening US dollar, with the dollar index breaking above 101. This surge in yields and currency strength was further amplified by shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of an October rate hike rose to 69.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike by December reached 54.8%.
SHFE Tin Reacts to Bearish Macro Headwinds
In direct response to these bearish factors from simultaneous strength in rates and the US dollar, the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened lower at 408,190 yuan/mt during the night session. Despite the initial drop, the contract stabilized with sluggish trading, closing at 411,440 yuan/mt in the morning session. This represented a decline of 1,320 yuan/mt, or 0.32%, from the previous trading day's settlement price.
Trading activity reflected a cautious atmosphere as the market gradually entered holiday mode. Intraday open interest in the most-traded SHFE tin contract decreased by 4,182 lots, while the November contract added 2,639 lots. Some funds exited their positions before the holiday, and both long and short participation willingness turned cautious.
On the spot market, SMM #1 tin was quoted at 410,600-412,800 yuan/mt with an average price of 411,700 yuan/mt on September 24, 2026. Trading in the physical market remained mediocre as downstream pre-holiday stockpiling had already been largely completed earlier. Current purchases were mostly for rigid turnover around existing orders rather than new accumulation.
Suppliers also adjusted their strategies in response to the cautious environment. Traders and smelters slowed their selling pace, with some suppliers focusing on price locking and pre-sales before the holiday. Meanwhile, LME tin 3M was basically flat at $53,920/mt on September 24, 2026, showing less volatility than its Chinese counterpart.
Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Summits Add Complexity
Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical developments added layers of complexity to the trading environment. Iran hardened its stance regarding regional tensions, stating it is willing to negotiate but will not accept coercion. The country indicated that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions are met.
This geopolitical friction contributed to a surge in energy prices. Overnight Brent crude rose nearly 4% back above $100/bbl, ending a five-day losing streak. The combination of rising oil prices and strong US economic data created a challenging backdrop for industrial metals like tin.
Additionally, the China-US summit officially took place on September 24, 2026, with the market focused on signals regarding tariffs and technology controls. Investors were closely monitoring the outcome of these diplomatic efforts, which could have long-term implications for global trade flows and commodity demand.
Short-Term Outlook for Tin Markets
Looking ahead, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate in the 406,000-418,000 yuan/mt range in the short term. This consolidation reflects the tug-of-war between strong macroeconomic data supporting higher yields and the cautious sentiment surrounding the upcoming holiday period.
As traders navigate these uncertain conditions, the interplay between US monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and pre-holiday positioning will likely dictate price movements in the near future. The stabilization of tin prices despite initial drops suggests that while macro pressures are significant, underlying supply dynamics and holiday-related trading patterns are providing a floor for the metal.