LME Week 2026 Opens Amid Base Metal Shifts
The London Metal Exchange (LME) Week 2026 began in London on Monday, bringing together industry leaders to discuss the macroeconomic outlook for base metals. Key topics included demand driven by artificial intelligence and energy transition sectors, as well as the resilience of critical mineral supply chains.
Discussions took place against a backdrop of robust activity at the exchange. The LME recorded a 16% year-on-year increase in average daily turnover from January through September.
Standard Chartered’s commodity analysts projected mixed results for base metals in the coming months, noting that prices will follow macroeconomic conditions, geopolitics, U.S. copper tariff uncertainty, and supply factors.
Copper Forecasts Rise on Supply Constraints
Amid this environment, Standard Chartered upgraded its average copper price forecast to $13,674 per ton in 2026 and $13,210 per ton in 2027. The bank cited supply stresses and ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. copper tariffs as key drivers for the revision.
The upgrade comes as copper prices have climbed 16% year-to-date, setting a series of all-time highs throughout the year. Market structure has also tightened; the nearby LME spread for copper has remained mostly in backwardation since July, with only a brief move to contango recorded in mid-September.
Inventory dynamics reflect these diverging pressures. Comex inventories reached a fresh record high of 790.4kt, partly due to persistent uncertainty over whether refined copper imports will become subject to new U.S. tariffs. Conversely, LME copper inventories continued to decline in October, although on-warrant inventories rose to 140kt, marking their highest level in a month.
Asian markets are also feeling the strain. SHFE inventories remain low overall, and the Yangshan copper import premium has risen to $137/t, its highest level since November 2022.
Chilean Output Falls as Aluminum Supply Improves
Supply-side challenges are particularly acute in Chile, a major global producer. Copper-mine output fell 12.8% year-over-year in August to its lowest monthly level since February 2011. Standard Chartered projects a decline of slightly more than 5% for Chilean production in 2026.
Operational stability has been further complicated by labor tensions as wage renegotiations proceed. A potential strike was averted at the Escondida mine, while a strike at the Centinela mine ended only after mediation talks led to the acceptance of a renegotiated wage offer.
In contrast to the tight copper market, aluminum prices have faced downward pressure. Standard Chartered lowered its aluminum price forecasts due to better supply prospects. These improvements are driven by a faster-than-expected recovery of Middle East supply and a ramp-up in Indonesian output.