Analysis of recent geopolitical developments indicates that China's willingness to accept higher risks in Myanmar and Afghanistan represents a shift extending beyond purely economic cooperation. This increased risk-taking occurs even as the nation faces ongoing challenges and setbacks within its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects located in Pakistan.
Belt and Road Setbacks and Strategic Persistence
China has already involved itself in infrastructure projects under the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative across multiple nations including Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Afghanistan. Reports note that progress on these regional initiatives remains mixed. Despite this uneven track record, Beijing continues to pursue engagement in areas where local conditions present significant hurdles.
Credibility issues are emerging as a notable factor for the Chinese government due to unfulfilled promises encountered during previous engagements. Local resistance further complicates the landscape of infrastructure development across these regions. Nevertheless, the strategic decision appears driven by objectives that transcend immediate economic returns or standard diplomatic reciprocity.
Feasibility Questions in Bangladesh
The proposed China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor (CMBC) has introduced a new layer of contention regarding regional connectivity plans. Reports from Dhaka indicate that certain sections within the country are raising questions about how feasible this proposal actually is.
A recent article published in Bangladesh's The Daily Star newspaper argued that while the CMBC project looks attractive on paper, it may not be a possibility right now under current circumstances. Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman addressed these concerns when speaking to media outlets on June 27. At that time, he stated that Bangladesh was "currently examining" the proposal and had "taken no position" on it.
The analytical piece noted that any overland connectivity through Myanmar would remain explicitly conditional on the restoration of peace and stability in Rakhine State. The minister also emphasized this conditionality during his remarks to the press, reinforcing the link between project viability and ground-level security conditions.
Security Realities Shaping Corridor Prospects
The core problem lies in Myanmar's Rakhine State, where reports indicate that the junta has lost effective control over much of the territory. An analytical piece highlighted this reality as a primary obstacle to immediate corridor implementation.
While maintaining that the CMBC remains a potentially important long-term initiative, the article noted: "For now, however, its prospects are shaped less by diplomatic agreements than by the realities inside Myanmar".
Bilateral Priorities and Long-Term Evaluation
The Daily Star emphasized that until conditions change within Rakhine State, Bangladesh's immediate priorities are likely to remain focused on bilateral projects that can move forward today. The approach suggests a strategy of continuing to evaluate the corridor as a longer-term possibility rather than adopting it as a near-term development strategy.
Security dynamics in Myanmar continue to evolve rapidly due to internal conflict and shifting power balances among various armed groups. These factors directly influence how regional connectivity projects are perceived by neighboring governments like Bangladesh, which must balance strategic interests with practical security constraints.
The Arakan Army Control
A significant development affecting the corridor's feasibility involves the position of the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organization in Rakhine State seeking greater autonomy. Reports indicate that this group now controls most of the region, including 14 of 17 townships.
This territorial control leaves the military clinging to a reduced footprint within its historical stronghold. The shifting security landscape complicates any plans for overland connectivity through Myanmar, as different factions maintain varying degrees of influence and authority across Rakhine State's territory.
Risk Assessment Beyond Economic Cooperation
China's engagement in both Myanmar and Afghanistan indicates a willingness to accept higher risks that go beyond the traditional scope of economic cooperation. This strategic posture persists despite setbacks experienced elsewhere within the Belt and Road framework, particularly regarding projects in Pakistan where challenges have been documented.
The decision reflects a broader approach to regional strategy that prioritizes long-term positioning over short-term gains or avoidance of potential complications. By maintaining engagement even when local conditions deteriorate or promises remain unfulfilled, Beijing signals an intent to sustain its presence across South and Central Asia regardless of immediate outcomes.
Implications for Regional Stability
The situation in Rakhine State serves as a case study for how security realities can override diplomatic agreements. Bangladesh's careful approach—examining proposals without taking definitive positions until conditions improve—illustrates the challenges faced by neighboring states attempting to navigate complex regional dynamics.
While China continues its pursuit of connectivity projects, other nations must weigh their own priorities against these shifting geopolitical landscapes. The CMBC represents one example where theoretical benefits clash with practical constraints imposed by ongoing conflicts and territorial disputes within Myanmar's borders.