Moyo on US Dominance and India's Growth
Economist and House of Lords member Dambisa Moyo stated that it is "hard to bet against US" but one "can’t count out India" regarding the new world order. Her comments address the forces reshaping the global economy, including geopolitical rivalries, fractured supply chains, Gulf investments, artificial intelligence, and the future of globalisation.
Moyo noted that global economic growth in major economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan remains below the three percent rate required to double per capita incomes in 25 years. In contrast, she reported that India is in a different category with economic growth of more than seven percent.
Constraints on Globalisation
Moyo stated that globalisation peaked in 2009 regarding trade, capital flows, orderly migration, and multilateralism led by Bretton Woods institutions. She observed that competition for resources, political dominance, military superiority, economic influence, and technological leadership has become more pronounced since the global financial crisis and Covid-19.
Moyo said globalisation has not disappeared but faces more constraints on capital, trade, and the movement of people alongside greater challenges to multilateralism.
European Economic Challenges
Moyo cited former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff’s description of Europe as experiencing a slow economic decline and an inability to produce sufficient electricity. She identified Europe's challenges as including slow economic growth, structural unemployment particularly among young people, and energy costs.
Moyo stated that Germany and France are growing at around 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent, while the UK is growing at approximately 1.2 percent to 1.3 percent. She cited the Mario Draghi report highlighting weakness of productivity growth across Europe.
Energy Costs and Labor Market Issues
Moyo reported that energy costs in the UK and Germany are closer to 40 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared with 12 to 18 cents in the United States and around 8 cents in China. She said high energy costs are creating a chokehold on economic growth.
Moyo stated that about 10 million people in the UK between ages 16 and 64 who should be working have not returned to work after the pandemic. She argued that Europe needs genuine structural reforms to become competitive globally and against countries such as the United States, which are leading in areas of technology.