Geopolitical Dynamics Among ASEAN, the US, and China

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Geopolitical Positioning in a Divided Asia-Pacific

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The ongoing rivalry between the United States and China in the Asia-Pacific region has placed the 11 member-nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in a volatile geopolitical situation. This dynamic affects the lives, security, and future of approximately 685 million people in the world's third most populated region.

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ASEAN nations command a purchasing power parity-adjusted gross domestic product representing around 6.3% of global GDP. The bloc encompasses a wide spectrum of development levels. Highly developed economies are led by Singapore, Brunei, and Malaysia. These are followed by emerging markets such as Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Less-developed nations in the group include Laos PDR, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Timor-Leste.

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Trade Volumes and Investment Flows

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ASEAN ranks as the fourth largest trading partner of the United States. U.S.-ASEAN trade reached no less than $475 billion in 2024. Trade volume is estimated to reach half a trillion dollars by the time of publication. American direct foreign investments in multiple ASEAN countries totaled no less than $75 billion in 2023.

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China has remained ASEAN's biggest trading partner, described as steady and consistent in its economic engagement. In contrast, U.S. trade policies under former President Donald Trump are characterized as having weaponized tariffs that disrupted supply chains.

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In the first half of 2025, total exports and imports between ASEAN and China reached $430 billion. The scale of this trade is reported to have exceeded one trillion dollars by the end of the previous year, representing a 19% increase over the prior year. Manufactured goods commanded 90% of the trade volume between the two entities.

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ASEAN imports from China rose by 65%. Three-quarters of these imports comprised capital and intermediate goods. Data reported by The Diplomat indicates that China’s export share to ASEAN climbed to 16.4% in 2024. This figure is higher than China's export share to either the United States or the European Union.

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Market Impact and Industrial Competition

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The influx of lower-cost Chinese finished goods is reportedly reshaping domestic markets within the region. According to reports, China now supplies 31.3% of total ASEAN imports.

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Factory closures and layoffs in Indonesia and Thailand are increasingly attributed to import competition from