Record Trade Volume Driven by Artificial Intelligence Demand
Worldwide trade exceeded a record US$35tn in 2025, with demand for artificial intelligence products serving as a key driver of goods trade despite ongoing geopolitical volatility. According to a report from the United Nation’s trade and development arm (UNCTAD), the global economy demonstrated resilience that surpassed expectations during a period marked by conflict in the Middle East, soaring oil prices, and rising inflation.
Artificial intelligence products, which include advanced computing hardware and related infrastructure, have become the primary engine of merchandise trade. In 2025, the value of trade in these AI products rose by 22% to reach US$4.2tn. This surge represents 42% of total global merchandise trade growth in nominal terms, underscoring the sector's outsized influence on international commerce.
The report identified digital and AI infrastructure, specifically data centers, as a significant source of growth dynamism within this expanding market. As demand for these technologies accelerates, UNCTAD noted that predictions of economic fragmentation have largely failed to materialize. Instead, new trade patterns are emerging that create opportunities for developing nations, even as decision-makers adapt to risk perceptions that have receded despite policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
Shifting Forecasts and Service Sector Interdependence
Reflecting this momentum, UNCTAD improved its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade growth to around 4.5% to 5%, a substantial increase from a previous prediction of 1.5% to 2.5%. Looking further ahead, the organization stated that trade in goods and services is on course to grow by around 4% in 2026, marking a mild deceleration from last year’s 4.4% growth.
However, the report highlighted a complex interdependence between sectors. A UNCTAD analysis of services trade found that the growing use of services across various industries makes them critical for goods exports. The organization suggested that if demand for AI products tempers in the coming years, services trade growth could outpace goods in 2027, indicating a potential shift in the primary drivers of global commerce.
Deepening Divergence Between Developed and Developing Economies
Despite overall resilience, the report found significant differences between countries, with gaps increasing between developing and developed markets. The average GDP per person in developing economies continues to diverge from that of developed economies, a trend attributed to the rise of “geoeconomics.” In this framework, states use trade, finance, and technology for strategic ends in sectors critical to national security and technological leadership.
Geoeconomics is characterized by the blurring of lines between economic and national security, growing geopolitical influence on trade networks, and a decreasing role of institutional stabilizers within the multilateral system. Consequently, only a few rapidly growing Asian economies, such as China and India, are keeping pace with the average GDP per person in developed countries. With those Asian economies excluded, most of the Global South is falling further behind.
The report stated that only a few economies are benefiting from the AI boom, compounding structural challenges like financialization, inequality, diminishing fiscal space, and climate change. Asia is forecast to provide 59% of global GDP growth in 2026, concentrated in East Asia. Developing economies as a whole are expected to grow by 4% in 2026 compared to 4.7% last year, while developed economies’ GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% from a higher baseline.
Global GDP growth is expected to be 2.6% in 2026, following three years at a steady 2.9%. This projection suggests that global resilience remains fragile and uneven, with the benefits of technological advancement and trade expansion concentrated in specific regions rather than distributed globally.