A Diplomat’s Warning on Great Power Competition
Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani delivered a speech at Ateneo de Manila University on Oct. 2, 2026, focusing on the rivalry between the United States and China. In his address, Mahbubani warned that the world is entering a dangerous period of great competition where international law may not protect smaller countries when it clashes with the interests of powerful states.
Mahbubani urged the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations to avoid becoming instruments of conflict between larger powers, singling out the Philippines as especially exposed. He advised that Asean members should be friends with both the US and China and avoid taking sides in their rivalry. This approach is consistent with Article II, Section 2 of the 1987 Constitution, which commits the Philippines to a policy of peace, equality, justice, freedom, cooperation, and amity with all nations.
The Fragility of Maritime Diplomacy
A crisis in the Philippines could affect other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) due to the danger that a dispute over maritime rights could become part of a wider contest between Washington and Beijing. The current diplomatic climate has seen heightened tensions, with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. calling Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan’s remarks about the use of force threatening and saying they warranted a direct discussion.
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. described China as a regional troublemaker and reportedly suspended military-to-military communications with Beijing. Rear Adm. Roy Trinidad defended the suspension of military channels, saying China used such channels as a smokescreen. Some senators have called for the Chinese ambassador to be declared “persona non grata”.
However, the Philippines has the right to protest threats and defend its maritime rights, but public exchanges raise questions about whether leaders are giving equal attention to preventing escalation. Cutting military communication channels may remove a means of managing an incident before it turns into something more dangerous. President Marcos has called for dialogue, a position that should be matched by efforts to keep diplomacy channels open.
The Limits of Legal and Nationalist Rhetoric
Much of the public debate rests on the 2016 arbitral award, which rejected China’s expansive historic rights claims where they exceeded rights allowed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (Unclos). The 2016 arbitral award did not decide sovereignty over every disputed feature and cannot force China to comply, though it remains a valuable legal and diplomatic asset.
Mahbubani’s point was that smaller states should not assume that law alone can protect them. The slogan “West Philippine Sea, atin ito!” cannot change the balance of power or ensure rights will be respected; international law has limits and should be used alongside diplomacy. He advised studying Ukraine to understand the human cost of conflict involving great powers and the difficulty of ending a war once it begins.
The Philippines must avoid becoming a battering ram in a war shaped by others, as military alliances may not remove every danger or align with Philippine goals. The core message from Mahbubani’s address remains that pragmatic foreign policy requires recognizing the constraints imposed by great power dynamics, rather than relying solely on legal victories or nationalist sentiment to ensure national security.