Interest Rates and Sales Forecasts
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), addressed Las Vegas Realtors regarding the current state of the housing market, noting that rising interest rates surpassing 7 percent are taking a toll on both new and existing home markets. Yun stated there will be no immediate let-up in these pressures.
During his address, Yun lowered his year-end forecast for 2026. He now predicts that existing home sales nationwide will increase no more than 2 percent, if at all, and that home prices will rise by 2 percent. This represents a downward revision from his June forecast, which had projected a 4 percent increase in both sales and prices.
Yun also expects new home sales to fall by 5 percent this year. He noted that the 30-year-fixed mortgage rate is currently hovering around 7.5 percent, marking its highest level since November 2023.
Market Data and Inventory Conditions
Recent data supports the challenging environment described by Yun. According to Home Builders Research, new home net sales in August were 30 percent below the 2026 average. The monthly total reached 502 units, a decline of 32 percent from July.
Locally, the Las Vegas Realtors association reported that September existing home sales fell 7.4 percent compared to September 2025. Condo and townhome sales experienced a sharper drop, falling nearly 13 percent. The association noted there are nearly 8,000 homes on the market without an offer.
Despite the sales declines, Yun said home prices remain on solid ground in Las Vegas. He pointed out that the September median price of $470,000 is the same as last year, though it is down from a June high of $490,000. Yun added that there are no distressed property sales or desperate sellers in the area.
Future Outlook and Regional Growth
Yun told Realtors that "Maybe 2027 it begins to turn." He cited a decade of normal and above-normal activity following the slump as part of his long-term outlook. He expressed optimism for the Las Vegas housing market by 2027, attributing potential future growth in Las Vegas, Utah, and Arizona to residents moving from California.
Yun noted that these states have more inventory, which makes it easier for buyers to enter the market. He stated that if mortgage rates drop closer to 6 percent at the beginning of 2027, there will be good buying activity. Yun called mortgage rates "the magic that drives the market."