Escalating Incidents Across European Borders
Julianne Smith, who served as the United States’ permanent representative to NATO from 2021 to 2024, argues that Russia’s hybrid warfare in Europe has entered a dangerous new phase and that the alliance is not doing enough to deter it. According to Smith, President Vladimir Putin aims to fracture alliance unity, test commitment to Article 5, and raise the cost of supporting Ukraine.
Smith highlights a rapid escalation in recent weeks as evidence of this shift. In late July, a Russian cruise missile crashed into Polish territory. Days later, three explosive-laden drones were found at and near an airport in Leipzig, Germany.
Two weeks after the Leipzig incident, Romanian F-16s scrambled to intercept three Russian drones over Romanian airspace. A Spanish jet subsequently shot down a fourth drone near the Moldovan border.
Tactics Below the Threshold of Conventional War
Smith states that Russia relies on tactics falling below the threshold of conventional warfare to erode allies’ confidence in NATO’s Article 5. During the first few years of the war in Ukraine, she reports that undersea cables were cut, incendiary devices were hidden in cargo packages, and arson attacks occurred on weapons factories and depots across Europe.
Smith notes that actors linked to Moscow have sabotaged railways, placed incendiary packages on cargo planes, and paid criminal networks inside Europe to burn down weapons plants. She reports that during the first year of the war, the number of Russian incursions in Europe quadrupled, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Smith asserts that NATO’s approach remained largely defensive because these attacks were scattered, small in scale, and deniable enough for Moscow to dismiss them.
Critique of Current Deterrence Strategy
Smith argues that a response built incident by incident is not deterrence. She states that as long as each provocation costs Moscow nothing more than a downed drone, Putin has reason to keep escalating.