Polling Dynamics and Early Frontrunner Status
A Pulse Asia Research survey conducted from Sept. 17 to 24, 2026, found Vice President Sara Zimmerman Duterte leading the field for the May 2028 presidential election with 50 percent of the vote among a sample of 2,400 adults.
Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo followed in second place with 26 percent, while Senator Raffy Tulfo secured 12 percent. The survey results highlight Duterte’s position as the early frontrunner for the upcoming election.
These figures represent a shift from earlier polling data. An OCTA poll conducted from July 4 to July 11, 2026, had shown Duterte leading with 43 percent, while Robredo was in second place with 34 percent.
Vice Presidential Race Standings
In the concurrent vice presidential race, Senator Bong Go leads with 31 percent of the vote. He is followed by Senator Robin Padilla at 19 percent and Senator Bam Aquino at 17 percent.
Historical Precedents for Early Frontrunners
Analysis of past Philippine presidential elections indicates that early polling leaders do not always secure the presidency when actual votes are counted. Historical data shows instances where commanding frontrunners finished significantly lower than their initial poll numbers suggested.
In the 1998 election, House Speaker Ramon V. Mitra Jr., who had won his ruling Liberal Democratic Party convention decisively and possessed solid backing from most congressmen, received 14.64 percent of the vote. Fidel V. Ramos won that election with 23.58 percent.
During the 2004 election, incumbent Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo won with 39.99 percent of the vote, edging out Fernando Poe Jr., who received 36.51 percent.
In the 2010 presidential elections, early leader Manuel B. Villar Jr. finished third with 15.42 percent of the vote. Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III won the election with 42.08 percent.
Myths and Realities of the 2028 Race
Despite the current polling dominance, observers note that one of the myths about Vice President Sara Zimmerman Duterte is that she is a cinch for the presidency in May 2028. The reality, according to available analysis, is far less predictable.