Sharp Decline in US Citizenship Approvals Raises Election Concerns
The number of individuals granted United States citizenship has plummeted by 72% during the first eight months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to a report published by The Washington Post on Friday, October 23, 2026. This dramatic reduction in naturalization approvals has drawn attention from political analysts and advocacy groups alike, particularly as the country approaches its midterm elections.
According to data cited by The Rio Times, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) approved approximately 173,000 naturalization applications between January and August 2026. This figure represents a sharp fall from the corresponding months in 2025, highlighting a significant contraction in the agency's processing capacity or policy enforcement during the second Trump term.
Surging Backlogs and Extended Wait Times
The slowdown in approvals has contributed to a massive accumulation of pending cases. The backlog of naturalization applications passed 800,000, a substantial increase from the approximately 500,000 pending applications recorded when the second Trump term began in January 2025.
As a direct result of this congestion, average processing times have stretched considerably. Wait times for naturalization decisions expanded from around six months in August 2025 to nearly 13 months by the same time last year. These extended delays leave hundreds of thousands of legal permanent residents in limbo, unable to access the full rights and benefits of citizenship.
Quarterly Data Reveals Steeper Drops
Recent quarterly data suggests that the decline may be accelerating. An analysis by Newsweek of USCIS quarterly data for the period between April and June 2026 found that only 57,697 applications were approved. This stands in stark contrast to the 241,326 approvals recorded during the same quarter in 2025, and the 218,720 approvals seen in 2024.
Calculations based on this quarterly data indicate that the 2026 figure is approximately 76% below the levels seen in 2025. This drop is steeper than the 72% decline observed in the broader first-eight-months comparison, suggesting that the slowdown intensified during the spring and early summer of 2026.
Further evidence of this trend comes from a separate tracker maintained by the Niskanen Center. The center reported that USCIS completed only 20,674 naturalization cases in July 2026, compared to 80,077 cases completed in July 2025.
When looking at the cumulative data from January to July 2026, the Niskanen Center found that USCIS completed an average of 27,077 cases per month. This is a significant decrease from the average of 86,044 cases per month recorded during the same period a year earlier.
Denial Rates Double Amidst Fewer Decisions
While the overall volume of decisions has dropped, the proportion of those decisions resulting in denial has risen. The Rio Times reported that denials fell by 41% in absolute numbers, indicating that the primary driver of the decline is fewer total decisions being made rather than a higher rate of rejection.
However, among the cases that were decided, the likelihood of denial increased. The Niskanen Center found that the share of completed cases ending in denial doubled from 10% in July 2025 to more than 20% in July 2026. This shift suggests that while fewer people are reaching the final decision stage, those who do face a significantly higher probability of rejection.
Impact on Specific Communities and Political Landscape
The delays and denials are affecting specific demographic groups differently. The Rio Times noted that Cuban green card holders, many of whom reside in South Florida, are among those waiting in the backlog. However, no national figure is currently available to show exactly how many Cubans are affected by these delays.
Additionally, other pathways to residency have also seen reductions. Green card approvals for Cuban nationals fell to just 139 between April and June 2026, indicating a narrowing of alternative routes to legal status during the same quarter that naturalization approvals collapsed.
The timing of these immigration trends has political implications. The Rio Times stated that only sworn-in citizens can vote in federal elections. With the midterm elections falling on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, the current backlog means that many eligible permanent residents are unable to naturalize in time to participate in the upcoming vote.
As the election approaches, the disparity between the number of pending applications and the rate at which they are being processed remains a focal point for observers monitoring both immigration policy and its potential impact on the electorate.