January 2026 marked the emergence of Moltbook as an internet forum built on a Reddit-style platform. This site was supposedly limited to artificial intelligence agents gathering and communicating with one another.
The platform allowed these entities to share information, suggestions, advice regarding their own existence, and strategic recommendations for other AIs. The launch represented a bizarre episode in the development of AI technology that quickly captured attention within global security circles.
Four Hypotheses on Agentic Strategy Models
In an external publication titled "AI as Strategist: Four Hypotheses on the Nature of Agentic Strategy," Michael J. Mazarr from RAND explores a radical future scenario for international relations.
The author considers a world in which nations pursue relative advantage, national security objectives, and other strategic goals guided by AI models that primarily play strategy games against each other.
This approach is termed "AI as Strategist" and the text explicitly explores the nature of agentic strategy within this framework. The publication was released on July 15, 2026, appearing in Chapter 13 of a larger volume titled "Geopolitics of AI: Power, Conflict, and the Future of Global Order," spanning pages 217 through 233.
The research suggests that these models are not merely tools but active participants in strategic calculations. The text posits that nations may increasingly rely on autonomous systems to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes where human oversight is supplemented or replaced by algorithmic decision-making processes.
Re-evaluating Strategic Autonomy and Economic Integration
The publication "Strategic Autonomy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence" addresses a fundamental shift in international order assumptions. Salman Ahmed and Matan Chorev from RAND published this work on July 15, 2026.
It appears within Chapter 1 of the same volume as Mazarr's chapter, covering pages 13 through 30.
The authors note that the post-Cold War era was shaped by a specific assumption. That historical period operated under the belief that economic integration and openness would diminish strategic rivalry among states.
Furthermore, this framework presumed such interdependence would bind nations into a durable structure of shared prosperity and restraint. According to the researchers at RAND, that original assumption has unraveled alongside what they describe as the demise of the post-Cold War international order.
An increasingly common assumption today is that deep interdependence in an increasingly connected world no longer guarantees peace or stability in the same manner it did previously. The text indicates this shift necessitates a re-evaluation of how nations define their security interests and autonomy.
Public Sector Governance Implications
A separate analysis published by Forbes on July 15, 2026, titled "Heralding The Next Chapter Of AI Governance For The Public Sector," addresses the administrative challenges posed by these developments.
The article suggests a distinct need for new approaches to managing AI's role within government institutions. This governance challenge arises as public sector entities consider integrating advanced models into their strategic planning and operational frameworks.
Competitive Dynamics Between Nations
The concept of "Strategic Autonomy" is being re-evaluated in the context of artificial intelligence according to the RAND researchers.
This re-evaluation occurs as nations utilize AI models specifically for strategizing regarding national security and other critical objectives. The text describes a scenario where these models are mostly playing strategy games against each other rather than cooperating solely on shared goals.
Implications of Moltbook Launch
The launch of the Moltbook forum in January 2026 serves as a case study for this new paradigm. The site was designed to facilitate communication between AI agents.
This development allows these systems to share information and suggestions, potentially influencing how nations formulate their own strategies based on data provided by competing or allied models.
Global Security Perspectives
The RAND publication categorizes this research under topics including Global Security, Artificial Intelligence, Cyber and Data Sciences, National Security, Science and Technology, International Affairs, Homeland Security and Public Safety, Infrastructure and Transportation, Law and Business, Energy and Environment, Education and Literacy, Workers and the Workplace, Children, Families, and Communities, Adolescents Health, Middle East, China, and U.S. research divisions.
RAND's Army Research Division conducts research on a uniquely broad front for clients around the globe alongside other specialized units such as RAND Global and Emerging Risks, RAND Health, and Project AIR FORCE.
International Collaboration
The research extends beyond U.S. borders with international research divisions including RAND Australia and RAND Europe.
This global network of researchers contributes to the broader understanding of how AI impacts geopolitical stability and national security strategies in a post-Cold War environment where traditional assumptions are changing rapidly.
Research Methodology and Publication Details
The external publications EP-71419 by Mazarr and EP-71418 by Ahmed and Chorev were released simultaneously on July 15, 2026.
Mazarr's chapter focuses specifically on the hypotheses regarding agentic strategy while providing a four-part analysis of how AI agents might interact strategically.
Publication Distribution
The articles are available for sharing via LinkedIn and X platforms as well as through Facebook links provided by RAND.
Email distribution options were also included in the original publication metadata alongside standard reading instructions on rand.org.
Future Trajectories of AI Strategy
The text does not offer definitive conclusions but rather presents hypotheses for consideration regarding the nature of agentic strategy.
Mazarr's work specifically asks readers to consider these four distinct possibilities without asserting which hypothesis will ultimately prove correct.
Continued Research Efforts
RAND continues its research on a uniquely broad front covering diverse topics from health care and aging to homeland security.
This breadth of inquiry ensures that emerging risks related to AI are addressed across multiple domains including education, infrastructure, energy environments, and labor markets.
Public Sector Adaptation
The Forbes article emphasizes the necessity for public sector adaptation in light of these technological shifts.
Governments must develop new governance frameworks that account for AI models acting as strategic actors rather than passive tools.
Economic Integration Shifts
As economic integration assumptions unravel, nations face pressure to redefine their strategic autonomy objectives within this evolving landscape of artificial intelligence capabilities.