Confronting Unequal Power Dynamics
Southeast Asia’s diplomatic engagement with China cannot be left to 11 separate national calculations, according to an opinion piece published Oct. 1, 2026, in The Manila Times. Antonio Contreras argues that while geography and commerce bind the region to China, the power dynamic between the two parties is unequal.
Contreras writes that when individual members act alone, they face Chinese inducements or pressure without regional support. To counter this, he asserts that ASEAN needs multilateral diplomacy to establish what its members will uphold together. The foundation for this approach is "ASEAN centrality," which requires the discipline of agreeing on principles before engaging China.
The article suggests that smaller groups within the region can solve focused problems without weakening that common position. Without this unified front, ASEAN risks being picked off one member at a time, even while its summits continue to proclaim unity.
Economic Frameworks and Shared Standards
Contreras points to the ASEAN-China Plan of Action for 2026–2030 as a framework spanning security, economic, social, environmental, and cultural cooperation. He states that ASEAN should use this plan to set priorities, review implementation, and benefit communities.
The upgraded ASEAN-China free trade agreement extends to digital and green economies alongside traditional trade. However, the author notes that separate investment offers may tempt governments to mute objections regarding other issues. To prevent economic cooperation from fragmenting their negotiating position, members need shared standards on transparency and resilience.
Maritime Security and Legal Coordination
Regarding the South China Sea, Contreras argues that ASEAN should agree in advance on incident reporting, affirm the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and respond collectively to coercive conduct. He emphasizes that the bloc must press China for a substantive, effective Code of Conduct that reduces dangerous encounters and protects lawful rights.
This proposed code must provide crisis procedures without diluting international law or restricting states outside negotiations. To support this, coastal states with overlapping concerns can coordinate legal analysis, share maritime information, establish coast guard hotlines, and agree on search and rescue, fisheries protection, and incident reporting to feed findings into ASEAN.
Multi-Track Diplomacy and Soft Power
Diplomacy should operate across tracks, including Track 1 (officials), Track 1.5 (officials with researchers/practitioners), and Track 2 (scholars, civic groups, business, labor, youth, and local governments). Think tanks can test options for a maritime code, environmental safeguards, or labor standards, while fisheries communities and local administrators provide insights on risks, flood warnings, disaster response, and public health.
ASEAN Plus Three allows discussion to extend beyond summits. Soft diplomacy through cultural exchange, education, journalism, and youth programs supports regional cohesion via reciprocal opportunities like joint research and scholarships.