Exclusion from China Development Forum Highlights Shifting Diplomatic Access
Stephen S. Roach, identified as the longest-attending foreign delegate to the China Development Forum (CDF), reported being banned from the event after 25 years of participation. In an opinion column published by The Manila Times on Nov. 1, 2026, Roach stated that his exclusion followed his provision of "constructive criticism" regarding structural issues in the mainland economy and a perceived loss of autonomous identity in Hong Kong.
Roach described feeling like an outsider at what he characterized as the country's most prestigious international gathering. He noted that relations with former friends in Hong Kong had also deteriorated, with some individuals now avoiding eye contact with him.
Despite the ban from the CDF, Roach attended the Bund Summit in Shanghai the previous week. A well-connected Chinese friend told Roach that the CDF has transformed into a government conference, whereas the Bund Summit remains "the real thing" and the best conference in China today.
Bund Summit Focuses on Economic and Geopolitical Frameworks
The Bund Summit’s agenda was organized around the theme of "Technology, Geopolitics, and the Global Economy." The event featured panels addressing monetary policy, fiscal and debt challenges, global imbalances, new energy sources, artificial intelligence, currencies, and trade.
Discussions were structured to reflect strong opinions from both inside and outside of China. A significant portion of the dialogue centered on whether the United States and China are entering a less contentious chapter following two of four planned summits between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this year.
The Limits of 'Constructive Strategic Stability'
Participants evaluated the possibility of a new era in bilateral relations, which hinges on "constructive strategic stability." This concept is based on principles of "respect, fairness, and reciprocity" established during the recent Trump-Xi summit in Washington.
However, the article characterizes "constructive strategic stability" as diplomatic word salad. Despite this linguistic ambiguity, it offers relief compared to previous tariff disputes, including a 145 percent tariff rate raised by Trump before he backed down after Xi utilized rare-earths leverage.
Rejection of a G2 System and the Strategy of Buying Time
While rumors of a trilateral summit between Trump, Xi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Shenzhen lend credence to a "Group of Two" (G2) system, the consensus at the Bund Summit was that a G2 is not on the cards.
Participants at the Shanghai gathering agreed that the primary takeaway from recent Trump-Xi meetings is their willingness to buy time due to domestic preoccupations. The aim is to avoid trade, technological, or military conflicts in the interim.
Roach assesses the current US-China relationship as stable for now but with an uncertain future.