Global Power Shifts and Institutional Erosion
Rajib Upadhya’s new book, titled 'Giants at the Gates: Nepal in a World of Reorder', examines the shifting global balance of power and its specific implications for Nepal. The nation is situated geographically between two major powers, India and China, a position that requires careful navigation as the international system undergoes significant transformation.
Upadhya, a former development professional and journalist who worked with the World Bank in Nepal and South Asia from 1995 to 2018, describes the 2020s as a pivotal decade characterized by a world in 'reorder'. He argues that the changes in the global hierarchy were already underway before 2020, driven particularly by the rise of China and the increasing influence of middle powers.
According to Upadhya, key institutions established after World War II have experienced steady erosion. These include the United Nations, the International Court of Justice, the Geneva Conventions, the Bretton Woods organizations, and the World Trade Organisation. The author suggests that the foundational frameworks that once governed international relations are losing their structural integrity.
Accelerating Shocks and the Rise of Multipolarity
Upadhya asserts that shocks beginning in 2020 accelerated global change, citing the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Europe, and the genocide in Gaza as primary evidence. He claims these events demonstrate that international law has broken down and that multilateralism is dying.
The book details the emergence of a multipolar world order. Upadhya claims that China and Russia joined the United States in the league of 'superpowers' around 2018, marking the first stage of this multipolarity. Current discussions, he notes, focus on the role of middle powers and swing-states, specifically naming India, Türkiye, Brazil, and South Africa as key actors in this new configuration.
Upadhya argues that for any new international order to function effectively, it requires globally accepted laws and institutions. However, he notes it is difficult to envision how frameworks like the UN Charter might be recreated or restored in the current geopolitical climate.
Nepal’s Strategic Position
The analysis places Nepal at a critical juncture within this reordering world. The book examines the rise of multipolarity and Nepal’s place between India and China, highlighting the need to rethink its foreign policy approach.
Upadhya’s work draws on decades of observation from both inside and outside the newsroom. His background includes extensive experience with international development institutions, providing a basis for his assessment of how smaller nations must adapt to the decline of traditional multilateral systems and the consolidation of power among superpowers and swing states.